華爾街天后分析師惠特妮（Meredith Whitney）周二（21日）表示，未來幾個月美國將出現大規模地方政府債務違約潮，不但會對股市與經濟造成傷害，一旦政府被迫進行裁員並刪減開支，就會引發更多社會問題，由於聯邦與州政府大舉降低金援，明年至少會有50至100個城市出現債務違約。
她指出，各州地方政府高達2兆美元的債務，是目前美國經濟面臨的最大難題，甚至會阻礙經濟復甦。
惠特妮進一步解釋，目前最大的問題是出現財務危機的州政府，已無法像往常一樣向地方提供援助。現階段高達40%的地方城市支出，均來自州政府補助。
惠特妮說，此時聯邦政府向地方政府提供紓困金的可能性也微乎其微，因為總金額可能會高達1兆美元，甚至引發嚴重的政治反彈。
隨著地方政府財務危機擴大，緊接著就是大批裁員潮，而如同陷入主權債問題的歐洲一樣，將使得社會動盪不安。新澤西州州長克利斯蒂(Chris Christie)則簡明扼要點出該問題的癥結，他說：「我們每個名目支出太多，並且瘋狂借貸，讓信用過度擴張。我們現在必須爬出過去數十年自掘的坑洞，但非常困難。」伊利諾州州政府的財政同樣吃緊，該州目前的開支為實際稅收的一倍，而且還款已拖欠近六個月，僅伊利諾大學即負債4億元。伊州違約不付債的可能高達21%，高於其他任何州。另外，佛羅里達州也可能陷入無力償債的困境。California, which faces a $19 billion budget deficit next year, has a credit rating approaching junk status. It now spends more money on public employee pensions than it does on the state university system, which had to increase its tuition by 32 percent.
Then there's New Jersey. It has the highest taxes in the country, a $10 billion deficit and a depressed economy when first-year Governor Chris Christie took office. But after looking at the books, he decided to walk away from a long-planned and much-needed project with New York and the federal government to build a rail tunnel into Manhattan. It would have helped the economy and given employment to 6,000 construction workers.
Gov. Christie acknowledged that's a lot of jobs. "I canceled it. I mean, listen, the bottom line is I don't have the money. And you know what? I can't pay people for those jobs if I don't have the money to pay them. Where am I getting the money? I don't have it. I literally don't have it."
目前各州的開支已比稅收超出近5000億元，退休基金並將面臨1兆元的資金缺口。許多地方政府被迫大砍預算，以底特律為例，包括警力、照明、道路維護和清潔等服務的預算，紛紛遭到刪減，多達20%的居民受到影響。各州為了彌補財政缺口，紛紛設法增加稅收，例如加州州立大學把學費調漲32%；亞利桑納州則是把部分政府大樓先出售給投資人後再承租回來，以節省開支。
"The lack of transparency with the state disclosure is the worst I have ever seen," Whitney said. "Ultimately we have to use what's publicly available data and a lot of it is as old as June 2008. So that's before the financial collapse in the fall of 2008."
Whitney believes the states will find a way to honor their debts, but she's afraid some local governments which depend on their state for a third of their revenues will get squeezed as the states are forced to tighten their belts. She's convinced that some cities and counties will be unable to meet their obligations to municipal bond holders who financed their debt. Earlier this year, the state of Pennsylvania had to rescue the city of Harrisburg, its capital, from defaulting on hundreds of millions of dollars in debt for an incinerator project.
"There's not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults," Whitney predicted.
No one is talking about it now, but the big test will come this spring. That's when $160 billion in federal stimulus money, that has helped states and local governments limp through the great recession, will run out.
The states are going to need some more cash and will almost certainly ask for another bailout. Only this time there are no guarantees that Washington will ride to the rescue.
===========================
Hundreds of billions of dollars? The one-year record, set in 2008, is $8.2 billion. You can see how an estimate of “hundreds of billions” would get people’s attention. The number is in the realm of the fabulous. If pressed, I would say that we might see between 100 and 200 municipal defaults next year, maybe totaling in the $5 billion or $10 billion range.
Most defaults in the modern era aren’t governmental or what we might call municipal at all. The majority are corporate or nonprofit borrowings in the guise of some municipal conduit -- nursing homes, housing developments, biofuel refineries -- so they could qualify for tax-free financing.
Why would a governmental entity choose to default on its bonds, especially if they make up a relatively small proportion of its costs?
“Debt levels for U.S. local and state governments are relatively low, with annual debt service representing a relatively small part of budgets,” Fitch Ratings said in a special report in November.
她指出，各州地方政府高達2兆美元的債務，是目前美國經濟面臨的最大難題，甚至會阻礙經濟復甦。
惠特妮進一步解釋，目前最大的問題是出現財務危機的州政府，已無法像往常一樣向地方提供援助。現階段高達40%的地方城市支出，均來自州政府補助。
惠特妮說，此時聯邦政府向地方政府提供紓困金的可能性也微乎其微，因為總金額可能會高達1兆美元，甚至引發嚴重的政治反彈。
隨著地方政府財務危機擴大，緊接著就是大批裁員潮，而如同陷入主權債問題的歐洲一樣，將使得社會動盪不安。新澤西州州長克利斯蒂(Chris Christie)則簡明扼要點出該問題的癥結，他說：「我們每個名目支出太多，並且瘋狂借貸，讓信用過度擴張。我們現在必須爬出過去數十年自掘的坑洞，但非常困難。」伊利諾州州政府的財政同樣吃緊，該州目前的開支為實際稅收的一倍，而且還款已拖欠近六個月，僅伊利諾大學即負債4億元。伊州違約不付債的可能高達21%，高於其他任何州。另外，佛羅里達州也可能陷入無力償債的困境。California, which faces a $19 billion budget deficit next year, has a credit rating approaching junk status. It now spends more money on public employee pensions than it does on the state university system, which had to increase its tuition by 32 percent.
Then there's New Jersey. It has the highest taxes in the country, a $10 billion deficit and a depressed economy when first-year Governor Chris Christie took office. But after looking at the books, he decided to walk away from a long-planned and much-needed project with New York and the federal government to build a rail tunnel into Manhattan. It would have helped the economy and given employment to 6,000 construction workers.
Gov. Christie acknowledged that's a lot of jobs. "I canceled it. I mean, listen, the bottom line is I don't have the money. And you know what? I can't pay people for those jobs if I don't have the money to pay them. Where am I getting the money? I don't have it. I literally don't have it."
目前各州的開支已比稅收超出近5000億元，退休基金並將面臨1兆元的資金缺口。許多地方政府被迫大砍預算，以底特律為例，包括警力、照明、道路維護和清潔等服務的預算，紛紛遭到刪減，多達20%的居民受到影響。各州為了彌補財政缺口，紛紛設法增加稅收，例如加州州立大學把學費調漲32%；亞利桑納州則是把部分政府大樓先出售給投資人後再承租回來，以節省開支。
"The lack of transparency with the state disclosure is the worst I have ever seen," Whitney said. "Ultimately we have to use what's publicly available data and a lot of it is as old as June 2008. So that's before the financial collapse in the fall of 2008."
Whitney believes the states will find a way to honor their debts, but she's afraid some local governments which depend on their state for a third of their revenues will get squeezed as the states are forced to tighten their belts. She's convinced that some cities and counties will be unable to meet their obligations to municipal bond holders who financed their debt. Earlier this year, the state of Pennsylvania had to rescue the city of Harrisburg, its capital, from defaulting on hundreds of millions of dollars in debt for an incinerator project.
"There's not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults," Whitney predicted.
No one is talking about it now, but the big test will come this spring. That's when $160 billion in federal stimulus money, that has helped states and local governments limp through the great recession, will run out.
The states are going to need some more cash and will almost certainly ask for another bailout. Only this time there are no guarantees that Washington will ride to the rescue.
===========================
Hundreds of billions of dollars? The one-year record, set in 2008, is $8.2 billion. You can see how an estimate of “hundreds of billions” would get people’s attention. The number is in the realm of the fabulous. If pressed, I would say that we might see between 100 and 200 municipal defaults next year, maybe totaling in the $5 billion or $10 billion range.
Most defaults in the modern era aren’t governmental or what we might call municipal at all. The majority are corporate or nonprofit borrowings in the guise of some municipal conduit -- nursing homes, housing developments, biofuel refineries -- so they could qualify for tax-free financing.
Why would a governmental entity choose to default on its bonds, especially if they make up a relatively small proportion of its costs?
“Debt levels for U.S. local and state governments are relatively low, with annual debt service representing a relatively small part of budgets,” Fitch Ratings said in a special report in November.
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