美國兩大房地產抵押貸款巨頭房地美 (FreddieMac) (FRE-US) 和房利美 (FannieMac) (FNM-US) 本月中收到美國聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 的指令，即將從紐約證券交易所除牌。退市之後，「二房」的股票雖然仍然會在場外市場交易，但實際上不會再有大的機構投資者持有，流通量也大減。中國持有的近 5000 億美元的「二房」債也被深深套牢。一旦美國政府最後決定讓「二房」破產，中國將血本無歸。
=========================
Published: July 1, 2010
Fannie and Freddie are now providing financing for more than 90 per cent of the US mortgage market, following the collapse of the market for bonds backed by private sector mortgages.
Fannie and Freddie fund their activities in two ways – by selling their own debt and by buying mortgages and packaging them into securities sold to investors. In doing so, they pay underwriting fees to banks, which amounted to $635m in the first half, according to Thomson Reuters analysis.
The way Fannie and Freddie sell debt has not changed in spite of the changes in their status. The US government took control in 2008 but does not explicitly guarantee the debt. Decisions on their longer-term status have been delayed until next year.
The status of Fannie and Freddie remains a politically charged issue. Republicans repeatedly tried to refocus the financial reform debate on the need to bring changes to the two mortgage financiers.
Reflecting the huge volume of debt sold by Fannie and Freddie, the fees are lower than those paid by other financial institutions or companies. Lam Nguyen at Freeman Consulting, which analyses fees for Thomson Reuters, said the agencies paid an estimated five to seven basis points in fees. Companies paid 20-80 basis points, with banks paying somewhere in between, he said.
Freddie said it had not made any changes to its fee structures since being taken over by the government. Fannie declined to comment. The biggest underwriters of Fannie and Freddie debt this year were Barclays Capital, JPMorgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.
And, given the alarm in some quarters over the mounting budget deficit, these two giants and their vast obligations are likely to remain off the federal books although they have become one of the most expensive aftereffects of the financial meltdown. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have obligations of $3.9 trillion to investors who bought bundles of mortgages that the companies assembled.
In late 2009, the Obama administration pledged to cover unlimited losses through 2012 for Freddie and Fannie, lifting an earlier cap of $400 billion.
In May 2010, after posting a big loss in the first three months of the year, Freddie Mac asked for 10.6 billion in additional federal aid. The request brings the total bill for rescuing the company to $61.3 billion. The total bill for the companies so far is $145.9 billion and counting. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the final bill could reach $389 billion.
==========================
House Lenders => Loans =>Investment bank
=>Fanni Mae / Freddie Mac (Goverment Pledge)
2900 billion US Dollar / Loss 389 billion dollars / write down 200 billion dollars
.
In financial crisis, Total write down assets in bank sector just 59.3 billion.
Scenario 1
如果 Obama 承諾負擔債務, 美國負債會繼續攀升, 財政次赤字會拖累公債信評, 會出現大危機 (Obama 也知道)
Scenario 2
如果 Obama 不承諾負擔債務, 房貸族面對的基準利率就會跳升 2%, 房地產會再次受創, 消費緊所縮, 政府無力增加量化寬鬆政策, 面臨2次衰推退
PS. MBS 的風險管理考量就是把美國自身風險經過證券化包裝移轉到全世界, 如果美國房貸沒有證券化, 結局會轉變成美國本土超級風暴.
==========================
過度槓桿泡沫破裂 => 經濟出現危機 =>量化寬鬆 => 逆轉經濟循環 => 資產泡沫
=>政府注資 => 財政赤字遽升
=> 退出量化寬鬆 => 復甦力道放緩 =>? 日本式復甦, 二次危機, 順利成長, ECFA boost
=> 減少政府支出 =>失業率依然高
投資建議 : 回防. 忘了台股會到萬點這種口號, 看一下企業獲利, 營收成長的基本面吧!
==========================
Published : 1, July, 2010
標準普爾 (Standard & Poor's) 發布報告，下調美股基準指數─標普 500 (S&P 500) 的目標價位，並建議投資人減少美股曝險，因熊市可能正在發展中。
留言列表
