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Recently,
there has been a lot of discussion about the bursting of the U.S.
housing bubble. Some economists claim housing prices are near a bottom,
while others claim that the real estate bubble is the largest financial
bubble in history and still has far to fall. This site aims to add to
the housing bubble debate with inflation-adjusted graphs and
spreadsheets showing that today's real estate prices are quite
abnormal, especially for many coastal metropolitan areas.
Theabove chart estimates the market value of today's median-priced house over a 40-year period. The thick red line represents real house prices. For those unfamiliar with economic terminology, "real" prices are prices that have been adjusted for inflation. The thick blue line represents nominal house prices. The thin lines represent the pre-bubble (1970-1999) trend lines.
This graph shows the change in nominal home prices vs. the change in nominal rents since 1983. Over the long run, home prices and rents should increase at roughly the same rate.
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看起來挺嚇人的, 跌價約7成, 所已面臨房貸族潛在違約的機率(Price
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Robert Shiller predicted the tech-stock collapse. He foresaw the housing bust.When I first noticed the U.S. housing bubble in spring of 2001, I never imagined it would last as long or get as big as it did. Real estate activity peaked in the summer of 2005, but home prices kept rising for another year. In spring of 2006, I couldn't believe that real estate prices were still rising even though housing inventories were also rising. Therefore, at a time when many people denied the existence of a housing bubble, I created these real estate charts in an effort to warn people that they were over-paying for real estate. Now, a decade after I first noticed the housing bubble and five years after I first created these real estate charts, the U.S. national housing bubble is completely deflated. However, there are still many local housing bubbles, especially in many Northeast and West Coast metropolitan areas.
He believes home or stock prices flow from the confidence of consumers or investors. Confidence, in turn, reflects the story lines people invent to frame their memories of events -- from stock crashes to housing booms. Ultimately, he says, our financial decisions reflect our emotions and memories more than the state of the economy.
China had what looks like a bubble, but the government has taken steps against it. This is another reason not to expect bubbles so much. The stock market bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s were still at a time when central bankers and government authorities believed much more in free-market efficiency than they do now. The authorities are now thinking that it's their responsibility to choke off bubbles.
Theabove chart estimates the market value of today's median-priced house over a 40-year period. The thick red line represents real house prices. For those unfamiliar with economic terminology, "real" prices are prices that have been adjusted for inflation. The thick blue line represents nominal house prices. The thin lines represent the pre-bubble (1970-1999) trend lines.
This graph shows the change in nominal home prices vs. the change in nominal rents since 1983. Over the long run, home prices and rents should increase at roughly the same rate.
=================================================
看起來挺嚇人的, 跌價約7成, 所已面臨房貸族潛在違約的機率(Price
=================================================
Robert Shiller predicted the tech-stock collapse. He foresaw the housing bust.When I first noticed the U.S. housing bubble in spring of 2001, I never imagined it would last as long or get as big as it did. Real estate activity peaked in the summer of 2005, but home prices kept rising for another year. In spring of 2006, I couldn't believe that real estate prices were still rising even though housing inventories were also rising. Therefore, at a time when many people denied the existence of a housing bubble, I created these real estate charts in an effort to warn people that they were over-paying for real estate. Now, a decade after I first noticed the housing bubble and five years after I first created these real estate charts, the U.S. national housing bubble is completely deflated. However, there are still many local housing bubbles, especially in many Northeast and West Coast metropolitan areas.
He believes home or stock prices flow from the confidence of consumers or investors. Confidence, in turn, reflects the story lines people invent to frame their memories of events -- from stock crashes to housing booms. Ultimately, he says, our financial decisions reflect our emotions and memories more than the state of the economy.
China had what looks like a bubble, but the government has taken steps against it. This is another reason not to expect bubbles so much. The stock market bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s were still at a time when central bankers and government authorities believed much more in free-market efficiency than they do now. The authorities are now thinking that it's their responsibility to choke off bubbles.
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