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中碳===========Positive
雖近期歐美景氣疑慮迫使油價稍稍回跌，惟日盛認為在短線利空消除、美國4Q11景氣仍將優於3Q11下，油價仍有機會回升到95~100美元/桶區間；而焦煤走勢恐因原供不應求轉趨供過於求而看跌，3Q11中鋼焦煤合約價已調降15美元/噸，預估4Q11將續調降35美元/噸。故在產品價看漲、而進料價看跌的趨勢下，中碳2H11毛利率將逐季走高，獲利也將因此走強。
中碳介相瀝青1,600噸/年新產能將於4Q11商轉，2H12尚有2,000噸/年產能加入，屆時總產能將達5,000噸/年。雖然電動車市場在未來2~3年內尚無法普及化，惟日盛認為中碳目前策略將先以擴大市佔率為主，新產能未來將以降價手段來搶奪市場。而雖然產品價格長期趨勢看跌，但日盛估算跌價2成後的產品毛利率仍有45%以上的水準，依舊高於中碳長期平均約3成的毛利率。預估2011年佔獲利比重7%，2012年可提高至12%~15%。 日盛預估中碳2011年稅後EPS 9.87元，2012年稅後EPS 10.95元。預期2H11產品價格看漲、而進料成本看跌，加上高毛利介相瀝青新產能於4Q11加入後，獲利可望逐季走高，近期股價伴隨2Q11獲利下滑而回檔
中碳未來成長動能為研發鋰電池中的負極材料─介相瀝青粉末，規劃今年9 月份產能由1,000 噸/年擴充至2,600 噸/年，目前接獲訂單已超過產能，規劃2Q12 年產能將再擴充至5,000 噸/年，以舒緩訂單與產能吃緊的狀態。
中龍二號爐訂於2012H2投產，中碳煤焦油與輕油進料將可望拉升至25.5與10萬頓，為營運成長提供動能。
第二季購料成本提高侵蝕毛利下滑、第三季積極調整毛利較好的雜酚油產品比重：過去中碳向中鋼採購煤焦油的計價公式，與中鋼購煤成本連動性高，由於2Q11 年中鋼的購煤成本較1Q11 年增加+10%~15QOQ%，使得中碳採購成本連動上漲約+8%~12%QOQ，然而產品調漲售價僅約5％左右的幅度，以煤焦油、苯為例，第二季分別僅上漲+5.4%QOQ 與+5.2％QOQ，成本上漲幅度高於產品報價。展望3Q11 年，目前煤價報價已下滑-2.25％QOQ，預估3Q11年中碳的採購成本將微幅下滑0～-5％QOQ，中碳積極調高毛利較好的雜酚油產品(碳黑上游)比重，且逐月降低軟瀝青(煉鋁電極棒上游)的比重。
2011 年稅後EPS 9.65 元，過去PER 區間約在14～18 倍
Ultrabook ====================
Ultrabook 對於零組件機構件供應鏈產值弊大於利，僅推薦買進可成報載外資圈紛紛看好Ultrabook 零組件供應鏈，日盛認為由於Ultrabook 是替代而非新增需求，零組件受惠程度恐不如市場預估顯著。再者，由於Ultrabook 在機殼、電池和SSD 成本增加，1,000 美元售價目標難以達陣，價格不具競爭力，日盛對於Ultrabook 實際上市後買氣持保守看法。整體而言，Ultrabook 對於零組件機構件供應鏈產值弊大於利，僅推薦買進2474 TT可成，目標價317 元。
TSMC==========================
Samsung(005930 KS)與GlobalFoundries 將在28nm 合作，不過以產能、交期與良率，2330 TT 台積電仍較具優勢。由於目前整體半導體產業仍面臨庫存調整和客戶下單疲弱的影響，對相關個股維持中立的投資建議。
台積電已提出開放創新平台(OIP)的整合解決方案，讓客戶直接採用獲認證的工具及矽智財(IP)，具獨立開發優勢，加上良率與交期的保證亦較同業佳，因此Samsung及GlobalFoundries合作對排名第二2303 TT 聯電影響反而較大。
Based on our sales/inventory assessment incorporating order cuts at foundries and sales guidance of their customers, we conclude chip inventory peaked at end-2Q and should drop substantially in 3Q and normalize in 4Q. However, the road to recovery still appears bumpy, and any growth expectations for the foundries in 4Q might disappoint again.
V-shape or L-shape? We expect this mid-cycle correction to end in 1Q12, or a short L-shape recovery for the global chip cycle, which implies that a better timing to review our fundamental stance could be late 4Q/early 1Q. However, investment could be further discouraged should the recovery turn out to be a long L-shape.
TI===========================
TI said that similar to the second quarter, both revenues and profits in the next quarter would be impacted by the disaster in Japan. However, we remain extremely optimistic about the company s compelling product line, market share gains, the proposed acquisition of National Semiconductor, mix advantages and the gradually improving end markets.
上銀========================== European demand is the key
目前歐洲訂單仍供不應求，加上工業自動化趨勢成形，公司訂單仍是應接不暇。不過，受到亞洲地區較低階工具機訂單呈現衰退影響，研究部調降今明兩年營收及獲利。2011 年營收由原先147.33 億下調至144.73 億元，EPS 由17.56 元調降至16.90 元。
在滑軌及螺桿的應用面逐漸變廣，台灣價格較低的優勢也漸漸搶佔日本原有的市場，加上大陸工業自動化趨勢帶動，公司營收仍可維持高成長性，預估2012 年營收187.36 億元，在滑軌及螺桿的市場上，應可追上日本THK 的市佔率，進一步擠身世界大廠，對於目前佔營收比重只有不到30%的歐美市場，市佔率可持續增加。
August sales will be higher than July: Hiwin’s share price was weak last week due to some market speculation that its August sales would drop 30% MoM. However, our check last week already showed that was a false alarm as demand (order) and supply (capacity) are almost done in 2H11 and it was unlikely to see too much downside surprise. The chairman further confirmed our view. We now expect 3Q11 revenue to grow by 10-15% QoQ with margin improvement due to better product and geographic mix.
No double-booking issue: The chairman indicated there was demand overshooting with double-booking in 2H10-1H11, given slow capacity expansion and quick demand recovery. According to the company, the current demand/order is much more solid and healthier. While there is some slowdown in China demand, especially for those mid- to low-end customers, Hiwin has already mitigated the risks by only allocating small capacity to those customers. Therefore, even with a demand decline, Hiwin could easily fill the gap by introducing to other customers.
Demand still higher than supply: This implies that Hiwin will run at high UTR in 2H11. More importantly, the Chairman indicated that there is no change to capacity expansion plans in spite of the recent China weakness. This means the company believes that the next catalyst/growth area could offset the potential China slowdown. We think that growth driver will be Europe business, which the company (and us) has been highlighting. He reiterated in the meeting that German/Spanish industrial demand remains solid and Hiwin has great growth potential.
Near-term share price consolidation still likely amid low visibility: Hiwin’s share price has pulled back 18% from its recent peak due to greater concerns of macro uncertainty and the Chinese government’s continued credit tightening, which may weigh on Hiwin’s business. However, we highlight Hiwin’s diversified sales sources. We believe its market share gain in regions such as Europe will help mitigate headwinds in China.
LED======================== weak demand
Semi Snippets AMAT's guidance weak; Epistar's utilization falling
Epistar is the biggest and highest quality LED chip companies in Taiwan and also one of the top customers of Aixtron. The fact that even Epistar is running at ~70% utilization highlights the extent of oversupply in LED industry. Even Cree (covered by Chris Blansett), which is mainly exposed to lighting market, had utilization of as low as 60% in Jun qtr. However, while LED industry fundamentals continue to remain challenging, Aixtron’s orders were at record level in 2Q11 due to subsidy driven Chinese orders. This disconnect between LED equipment orders and end demand has meant that oversupply and pricing in LED industry has continued to worsen. Also, the quality of Chinese orders remains questionable as backlog conversion in 2Q11 fell to 50% from 73% in prior 4 quarters, which had resulted in company missing 2Q11 numbers. Aixtron has fallen substantially over the past 3-4 months and valuation is now looking more attractive. But unless Aixtron’s orders correct substantially from current record levels to reflect end demand environment, we think it’s too early to turn positive on the stock. We have a Neutral rating on Aixtron.
成衣====================== US and European remaining weak
美國成衣消費市場警訊持續，後市展望轉趨保守，聚陽2012年獲利成長有限，目前PER9.42X已屬合理，故將評等由買進調降至中立。
目前聚陽正極力拓展亞洲區域客戶，現階段最大客戶為台灣新興的網路品牌「lativ?， 佔2011年營收比重約5%~6%，推估訂單量約35萬打左右，以該品牌預計2011年營業額30億元、2012年目標價成長6成以上至50億元推斷，聚陽2012年對lativ的出貨量有機會達50萬打；其餘已出貨的客戶包含中國大潤發、Baleno等，4Q11將開始供貨給日系客戶UNIQLO，日盛預估2012年整體亞洲區出貨量可達115萬打，成長7成以上。
綜合來看，在此消(美國客戶)彼長(亞洲客戶)下，日盛預估聚陽2012年出貨量873萬打，僅能小幅成長5.54%，各季營收動能恐只有個位數成長
AirTAC====================
Automation of China’s manufacturing looks set to drive strong growth for machinery companies with exposure to the country.
4Q11 revenue would catch up: AirTAC expects 3Q revenue momentum to be weaker than the historical seasonality (down 3-10% Q/Q vs. historical 3- 5%) due to China’s credit tightening policy. However, Mr. Wang thinks revenue should bottom in 3Q and recover in 4Q (vs. down 27% Q/Q last year) due to orders picking up from September and new product launches in late-3Q.
Optimistic about 2012 due to market-share gain: Mr. Wang is still optimistic about 2012. He expects AirTAC’s revenue to grow 25-30%Y/Y due to: (a) industry organic growth (8-10%); (b) increasing customized products (5%); (c) new product launches (3-5%); and (d) market-share gain from SMC and local Chinese companies (5-10%). Mr. Wang thinks the increasing exposure to the high-end products (electronic and medical) will help margins. With strong FAI growth outlook, we believe AirTAC could meet its guidance.
1)Barring further macro deterioration, mgt is confident of 25~30% y-y sales growth in FY12, with GM at 53~55% (vs. our FY11 forecast of 51.9%), and further OM expansion. 2)Declining input costs (aluminium, copper, and stainless steel) over the next 12-months has also become more of a base-case scenario. 3) High valuations have always been a hindrance and pullbacks represent opportunity to slowly build LT positions.
Cargo ship ===========================
Wisdom Marine currently is traded at 1.5X 2011F BVPS, the lower end of the firm’s historical trading band. Most of Wisdom Marine’s ships are relatively small. Through diversified fleet (e.g., bulk carriers, loggers, container, multi-purpose) and long term contracts with Japanese shippers to lower operational risk, Wisdom Marine manages to secure a solid business growth. Meanwhile, we believe the firm’s share prices will be supported by the capital raising theme(37元) in the near future.
太陽能 ============================
預估2011 年全球太陽能電池產能達45.65GW及全球需求20.5GW來看，供過於求狀況顯著(部分市調機構統計太陽能電池全球產能高達50~60GW)，並非倒一家Evergreen 即可舒緩，太陽能廠商淘汰潮恐將啟動。
台灣廠商方面，隨著終端系統價格下跌，IRR 明顯拉升，3Q11 市場需求明顯走揚已成市場共識，但獲利影響關鍵卻在於出貨價格。台灣廠商多晶矽成本多落於50~55 美元/公斤，矽晶圓出貨價2.0~2.2 美元/片，太陽能電池出貨價約0.78~0.80 美元/瓦。對矽晶圓廠商而言，若以多晶矽成本50 美元/公斤及矽晶圓出貨價2.1 美元/片計算，毛利率約為-11%左右水準。在此價格結構下，矽晶圓廠商獲利艱難。而電池廠商難以向矽晶圓業者要求降價，且向下游模組廠商要求漲價不易，在目前價格結構下，僅可微薄獲利。因此，日盛認為太陽能廠商2H11 營收有機會表現亮眼，但稅後獲利仍停留在低迷水準。
零組件 ============================
可成2Q11合併毛利率高達47.06%，主要原因是智慧型手機機殼在經歷約1年的調整之後，良率大幅提升效益展現。即便未來可能受到人工、原料成本上揚影響，但由於目前金屬機殼產能仍供不應求，而可成在技術與良率領先的狀況下，成本具備明顯優勢，短期並不會面臨殺價競爭的威脅。(替代商品為塑膠機殼，產品為低價智慧型手機市場--一體成型金屬機殼造價約30~50美元，遠高於塑膠機殼約6~8 美元的水準)
就需求角度分析，目前一體成型金屬機殼主要應用在智慧手機、平板電腦、MacBook，日盛預估2012年全球智慧手機、平板電腦、MacBook出貨YoY分別高達+35%、+65%和+37%，相關應用產品仍處於高速成長期。此外，Intel推動的Ultrabook帶動輕薄概念筆電，亦可望支撐2012年金屬機殼需求。
NB 產業傳統旺季效應落空與iPad-like 平板電腦3Q11 銷量不如預期，原本看好理由已不存在，下修相關個股投資評等至中立。3Q11並不存在傳統旺季效應，加上原物料、人工成本上漲等負面因素在3Q11 持續發酵，對零組件廠獲利將產生負面影響。在2Q11 舖貨高峰過後，目前出貨量已開始出現明顯下滑，相關個股宏致、信音受惠程度不如原預期。
雖然Ultrabook 被Intel 視為是反攻平板電腦的利器，但Ultrabook 因厚度限制必須使用金屬機殼和SSD，成本將遠高於傳統塑膠機殼和傳統硬碟的解決方案。在價格競爭力低的前提下，日盛認為Ultrabook短期內滲透率無法有效提升。對照先前CULV 平板因價格過高而導致滲透率不如預期的前車之鑑，目前即便是進度最快的2357 TT 華碩也對Ultrabook 的態度保守。
對凡甲的投資建議為中立，2011年NB產業成長受限，Ultrabook不利I/O連接器需求，2011年獲利衰退。非NB連接器雖可望改善凡甲獲利結構，惟2011年營收貢獻有限。
由於智慧型手機及平板電腦的興起，電子產品逐漸朝向輕薄短小之趨勢發展，使人工目測檢測已無法滿足品質的要求，再加上中國人工成本上揚及缺工疑慮，且終端產品需求大必須加快生產速度，因而增加檢測設備的需求。
德律為檢測設備商，主要產品為PCB相關檢測設備及IC測試設備，分別佔營收之97%及3%，產品毛利率介於50~55%。其中PCB相關檢測設備包含了自動光學檢測系統(主要應用於SMT組裝製程)及Board Tester(後端電性檢測)，約各佔一半之營收。IC測試設備則分為邏輯IC與Power IC。售後維修服務部份約佔整體營收之10%。以終端應用面來區分，則涵蓋了IT、Network、Consumer、Mobile phone、Game、LED TV/Monitor、Telecom、Auto等產業。許多國內外OEM、ODM、EMS大廠皆為其客戶，前五大客戶約佔整體營收之30~40%。
德律產品主要皆以自有品牌(TRI)銷售，目前在AOI檢測設備全球市佔率約10%，位居第二，僅次於日廠Omron。德律之競爭優勢在於價格相對於國際廠商便宜約20~30%，主要由於大部分產品為已模組化設計的標準品，擁有快速出貨的能力，從接獲產品訂單到出貨，平均僅需一個月時程，因此訂單能見度普遍不到4週。
雖近期歐美景氣疑慮迫使油價稍稍回跌，惟日盛認為在短線利空消除、美國4Q11景氣仍將優於3Q11下，油價仍有機會回升到95~100美元/桶區間；而焦煤走勢恐因原供不應求轉趨供過於求而看跌，3Q11中鋼焦煤合約價已調降15美元/噸，預估4Q11將續調降35美元/噸。故在產品價看漲、而進料價看跌的趨勢下，中碳2H11毛利率將逐季走高，獲利也將因此走強。
中碳介相瀝青1,600噸/年新產能將於4Q11商轉，2H12尚有2,000噸/年產能加入，屆時總產能將達5,000噸/年。雖然電動車市場在未來2~3年內尚無法普及化，惟日盛認為中碳目前策略將先以擴大市佔率為主，新產能未來將以降價手段來搶奪市場。而雖然產品價格長期趨勢看跌，但日盛估算跌價2成後的產品毛利率仍有45%以上的水準，依舊高於中碳長期平均約3成的毛利率。預估2011年佔獲利比重7%，2012年可提高至12%~15%。 日盛預估中碳2011年稅後EPS 9.87元，2012年稅後EPS 10.95元。預期2H11產品價格看漲、而進料成本看跌，加上高毛利介相瀝青新產能於4Q11加入後，獲利可望逐季走高，近期股價伴隨2Q11獲利下滑而回檔
中碳未來成長動能為研發鋰電池中的負極材料─介相瀝青粉末，規劃今年9 月份產能由1,000 噸/年擴充至2,600 噸/年，目前接獲訂單已超過產能，規劃2Q12 年產能將再擴充至5,000 噸/年，以舒緩訂單與產能吃緊的狀態。
中龍二號爐訂於2012H2投產，中碳煤焦油與輕油進料將可望拉升至25.5與10萬頓，為營運成長提供動能。
第二季購料成本提高侵蝕毛利下滑、第三季積極調整毛利較好的雜酚油產品比重：過去中碳向中鋼採購煤焦油的計價公式，與中鋼購煤成本連動性高，由於2Q11 年中鋼的購煤成本較1Q11 年增加+10%~15QOQ%，使得中碳採購成本連動上漲約+8%~12%QOQ，然而產品調漲售價僅約5％左右的幅度，以煤焦油、苯為例，第二季分別僅上漲+5.4%QOQ 與+5.2％QOQ，成本上漲幅度高於產品報價。展望3Q11 年，目前煤價報價已下滑-2.25％QOQ，預估3Q11年中碳的採購成本將微幅下滑0～-5％QOQ，中碳積極調高毛利較好的雜酚油產品(碳黑上游)比重，且逐月降低軟瀝青(煉鋁電極棒上游)的比重。
2011 年稅後EPS 9.65 元，過去PER 區間約在14～18 倍
Ultrabook ====================
Ultrabook 對於零組件機構件供應鏈產值弊大於利，僅推薦買進可成報載外資圈紛紛看好Ultrabook 零組件供應鏈，日盛認為由於Ultrabook 是替代而非新增需求，零組件受惠程度恐不如市場預估顯著。再者，由於Ultrabook 在機殼、電池和SSD 成本增加，1,000 美元售價目標難以達陣，價格不具競爭力，日盛對於Ultrabook 實際上市後買氣持保守看法。整體而言，Ultrabook 對於零組件機構件供應鏈產值弊大於利，僅推薦買進2474 TT可成，目標價317 元。
TSMC==========================
Samsung(005930 KS)與GlobalFoundries 將在28nm 合作，不過以產能、交期與良率，2330 TT 台積電仍較具優勢。由於目前整體半導體產業仍面臨庫存調整和客戶下單疲弱的影響，對相關個股維持中立的投資建議。
台積電已提出開放創新平台(OIP)的整合解決方案，讓客戶直接採用獲認證的工具及矽智財(IP)，具獨立開發優勢，加上良率與交期的保證亦較同業佳，因此Samsung及GlobalFoundries合作對排名第二2303 TT 聯電影響反而較大。
Based on our sales/inventory assessment incorporating order cuts at foundries and sales guidance of their customers, we conclude chip inventory peaked at end-2Q and should drop substantially in 3Q and normalize in 4Q. However, the road to recovery still appears bumpy, and any growth expectations for the foundries in 4Q might disappoint again.
V-shape or L-shape? We expect this mid-cycle correction to end in 1Q12, or a short L-shape recovery for the global chip cycle, which implies that a better timing to review our fundamental stance could be late 4Q/early 1Q. However, investment could be further discouraged should the recovery turn out to be a long L-shape.
TI===========================
TI said that similar to the second quarter, both revenues and profits in the next quarter would be impacted by the disaster in Japan. However, we remain extremely optimistic about the company s compelling product line, market share gains, the proposed acquisition of National Semiconductor, mix advantages and the gradually improving end markets.
上銀========================== European demand is the key
目前歐洲訂單仍供不應求，加上工業自動化趨勢成形，公司訂單仍是應接不暇。不過，受到亞洲地區較低階工具機訂單呈現衰退影響，研究部調降今明兩年營收及獲利。2011 年營收由原先147.33 億下調至144.73 億元，EPS 由17.56 元調降至16.90 元。
在滑軌及螺桿的應用面逐漸變廣，台灣價格較低的優勢也漸漸搶佔日本原有的市場，加上大陸工業自動化趨勢帶動，公司營收仍可維持高成長性，預估2012 年營收187.36 億元，在滑軌及螺桿的市場上，應可追上日本THK 的市佔率，進一步擠身世界大廠，對於目前佔營收比重只有不到30%的歐美市場，市佔率可持續增加。
August sales will be higher than July: Hiwin’s share price was weak last week due to some market speculation that its August sales would drop 30% MoM. However, our check last week already showed that was a false alarm as demand (order) and supply (capacity) are almost done in 2H11 and it was unlikely to see too much downside surprise. The chairman further confirmed our view. We now expect 3Q11 revenue to grow by 10-15% QoQ with margin improvement due to better product and geographic mix.
No double-booking issue: The chairman indicated there was demand overshooting with double-booking in 2H10-1H11, given slow capacity expansion and quick demand recovery. According to the company, the current demand/order is much more solid and healthier. While there is some slowdown in China demand, especially for those mid- to low-end customers, Hiwin has already mitigated the risks by only allocating small capacity to those customers. Therefore, even with a demand decline, Hiwin could easily fill the gap by introducing to other customers.
Demand still higher than supply: This implies that Hiwin will run at high UTR in 2H11. More importantly, the Chairman indicated that there is no change to capacity expansion plans in spite of the recent China weakness. This means the company believes that the next catalyst/growth area could offset the potential China slowdown. We think that growth driver will be Europe business, which the company (and us) has been highlighting. He reiterated in the meeting that German/Spanish industrial demand remains solid and Hiwin has great growth potential.
Near-term share price consolidation still likely amid low visibility: Hiwin’s share price has pulled back 18% from its recent peak due to greater concerns of macro uncertainty and the Chinese government’s continued credit tightening, which may weigh on Hiwin’s business. However, we highlight Hiwin’s diversified sales sources. We believe its market share gain in regions such as Europe will help mitigate headwinds in China.
LED======================== weak demand
Semi Snippets AMAT's guidance weak; Epistar's utilization falling
Epistar is the biggest and highest quality LED chip companies in Taiwan and also one of the top customers of Aixtron. The fact that even Epistar is running at ~70% utilization highlights the extent of oversupply in LED industry. Even Cree (covered by Chris Blansett), which is mainly exposed to lighting market, had utilization of as low as 60% in Jun qtr. However, while LED industry fundamentals continue to remain challenging, Aixtron’s orders were at record level in 2Q11 due to subsidy driven Chinese orders. This disconnect between LED equipment orders and end demand has meant that oversupply and pricing in LED industry has continued to worsen. Also, the quality of Chinese orders remains questionable as backlog conversion in 2Q11 fell to 50% from 73% in prior 4 quarters, which had resulted in company missing 2Q11 numbers. Aixtron has fallen substantially over the past 3-4 months and valuation is now looking more attractive. But unless Aixtron’s orders correct substantially from current record levels to reflect end demand environment, we think it’s too early to turn positive on the stock. We have a Neutral rating on Aixtron.
成衣====================== US and European remaining weak
美國成衣消費市場警訊持續，後市展望轉趨保守，聚陽2012年獲利成長有限，目前PER9.42X已屬合理，故將評等由買進調降至中立。
目前聚陽正極力拓展亞洲區域客戶，現階段最大客戶為台灣新興的網路品牌「lativ?， 佔2011年營收比重約5%~6%，推估訂單量約35萬打左右，以該品牌預計2011年營業額30億元、2012年目標價成長6成以上至50億元推斷，聚陽2012年對lativ的出貨量有機會達50萬打；其餘已出貨的客戶包含中國大潤發、Baleno等，4Q11將開始供貨給日系客戶UNIQLO，日盛預估2012年整體亞洲區出貨量可達115萬打，成長7成以上。
綜合來看，在此消(美國客戶)彼長(亞洲客戶)下，日盛預估聚陽2012年出貨量873萬打，僅能小幅成長5.54%，各季營收動能恐只有個位數成長
AirTAC====================
Automation of China’s manufacturing looks set to drive strong growth for machinery companies with exposure to the country.
4Q11 revenue would catch up: AirTAC expects 3Q revenue momentum to be weaker than the historical seasonality (down 3-10% Q/Q vs. historical 3- 5%) due to China’s credit tightening policy. However, Mr. Wang thinks revenue should bottom in 3Q and recover in 4Q (vs. down 27% Q/Q last year) due to orders picking up from September and new product launches in late-3Q.
Optimistic about 2012 due to market-share gain: Mr. Wang is still optimistic about 2012. He expects AirTAC’s revenue to grow 25-30%Y/Y due to: (a) industry organic growth (8-10%); (b) increasing customized products (5%); (c) new product launches (3-5%); and (d) market-share gain from SMC and local Chinese companies (5-10%). Mr. Wang thinks the increasing exposure to the high-end products (electronic and medical) will help margins. With strong FAI growth outlook, we believe AirTAC could meet its guidance.
1)Barring further macro deterioration, mgt is confident of 25~30% y-y sales growth in FY12, with GM at 53~55% (vs. our FY11 forecast of 51.9%), and further OM expansion. 2)Declining input costs (aluminium, copper, and stainless steel) over the next 12-months has also become more of a base-case scenario. 3) High valuations have always been a hindrance and pullbacks represent opportunity to slowly build LT positions.
Cargo ship ===========================
Wisdom Marine currently is traded at 1.5X 2011F BVPS, the lower end of the firm’s historical trading band. Most of Wisdom Marine’s ships are relatively small. Through diversified fleet (e.g., bulk carriers, loggers, container, multi-purpose) and long term contracts with Japanese shippers to lower operational risk, Wisdom Marine manages to secure a solid business growth. Meanwhile, we believe the firm’s share prices will be supported by the capital raising theme(37元) in the near future.
太陽能 ============================
預估2011 年全球太陽能電池產能達45.65GW及全球需求20.5GW來看，供過於求狀況顯著(部分市調機構統計太陽能電池全球產能高達50~60GW)，並非倒一家Evergreen 即可舒緩，太陽能廠商淘汰潮恐將啟動。
台灣廠商方面，隨著終端系統價格下跌，IRR 明顯拉升，3Q11 市場需求明顯走揚已成市場共識，但獲利影響關鍵卻在於出貨價格。台灣廠商多晶矽成本多落於50~55 美元/公斤，矽晶圓出貨價2.0~2.2 美元/片，太陽能電池出貨價約0.78~0.80 美元/瓦。對矽晶圓廠商而言，若以多晶矽成本50 美元/公斤及矽晶圓出貨價2.1 美元/片計算，毛利率約為-11%左右水準。在此價格結構下，矽晶圓廠商獲利艱難。而電池廠商難以向矽晶圓業者要求降價，且向下游模組廠商要求漲價不易，在目前價格結構下，僅可微薄獲利。因此，日盛認為太陽能廠商2H11 營收有機會表現亮眼，但稅後獲利仍停留在低迷水準。
零組件 ============================
可成2Q11合併毛利率高達47.06%，主要原因是智慧型手機機殼在經歷約1年的調整之後，良率大幅提升效益展現。即便未來可能受到人工、原料成本上揚影響，但由於目前金屬機殼產能仍供不應求，而可成在技術與良率領先的狀況下，成本具備明顯優勢，短期並不會面臨殺價競爭的威脅。(替代商品為塑膠機殼，產品為低價智慧型手機市場--一體成型金屬機殼造價約30~50美元，遠高於塑膠機殼約6~8 美元的水準)
就需求角度分析，目前一體成型金屬機殼主要應用在智慧手機、平板電腦、MacBook，日盛預估2012年全球智慧手機、平板電腦、MacBook出貨YoY分別高達+35%、+65%和+37%，相關應用產品仍處於高速成長期。此外，Intel推動的Ultrabook帶動輕薄概念筆電，亦可望支撐2012年金屬機殼需求。
NB 產業傳統旺季效應落空與iPad-like 平板電腦3Q11 銷量不如預期，原本看好理由已不存在，下修相關個股投資評等至中立。3Q11並不存在傳統旺季效應，加上原物料、人工成本上漲等負面因素在3Q11 持續發酵，對零組件廠獲利將產生負面影響。在2Q11 舖貨高峰過後，目前出貨量已開始出現明顯下滑，相關個股宏致、信音受惠程度不如原預期。
雖然Ultrabook 被Intel 視為是反攻平板電腦的利器，但Ultrabook 因厚度限制必須使用金屬機殼和SSD，成本將遠高於傳統塑膠機殼和傳統硬碟的解決方案。在價格競爭力低的前提下，日盛認為Ultrabook短期內滲透率無法有效提升。對照先前CULV 平板因價格過高而導致滲透率不如預期的前車之鑑，目前即便是進度最快的2357 TT 華碩也對Ultrabook 的態度保守。
對凡甲的投資建議為中立，2011年NB產業成長受限，Ultrabook不利I/O連接器需求，2011年獲利衰退。非NB連接器雖可望改善凡甲獲利結構，惟2011年營收貢獻有限。
由於智慧型手機及平板電腦的興起，電子產品逐漸朝向輕薄短小之趨勢發展，使人工目測檢測已無法滿足品質的要求，再加上中國人工成本上揚及缺工疑慮，且終端產品需求大必須加快生產速度，因而增加檢測設備的需求。
德律為檢測設備商，主要產品為PCB相關檢測設備及IC測試設備，分別佔營收之97%及3%，產品毛利率介於50~55%。其中PCB相關檢測設備包含了自動光學檢測系統(主要應用於SMT組裝製程)及Board Tester(後端電性檢測)，約各佔一半之營收。IC測試設備則分為邏輯IC與Power IC。售後維修服務部份約佔整體營收之10%。以終端應用面來區分，則涵蓋了IT、Network、Consumer、Mobile phone、Game、LED TV/Monitor、Telecom、Auto等產業。許多國內外OEM、ODM、EMS大廠皆為其客戶，前五大客戶約佔整體營收之30~40%。
德律產品主要皆以自有品牌(TRI)銷售，目前在AOI檢測設備全球市佔率約10%，位居第二，僅次於日廠Omron。德律之競爭優勢在於價格相對於國際廠商便宜約20~30%，主要由於大部分產品為已模組化設計的標準品，擁有快速出貨的能力，從接獲產品訂單到出貨，平均僅需一個月時程，因此訂單能見度普遍不到4週。
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