close
By Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld
From Jul 15, 2011 5:02 AM PT
Consumers are turning more pessimistic about their income prospects, an indication that household spending will grow at a slower pace compared with a year earlier.
The share of Americans foreseeing a drop in wages over the next six months topped the proportion projecting an increase by 2.6 percentage points in June, data from the Conference Board, a New York research group, showed. That is the lowest reading since October 2010, according to Lynn Franco, director of the group’s consumer research center.
Weak income expectations will continue to “hold back” consumer spending, she said in an interview this week. “Overall, we expect growth in real personal consumption to remain sluggish, averaging less than 2.5 percent in the second half of this year” on an annual basis, said Franco.
Spending adjusted for inflation, known as real spending, grew 2.7 percent by that measure on average from January through April, before cooling to 2.1 percent in the 12 months ended May, according to figures from the Commerce Department.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week highlighted concern over Americans’ attitudes toward income in his semi-annual testimony to Congress. “Households report that they have little confidence in the durability of the recovery and about their own income prospects,” Bernanke said.
==============================
By Jul 13, 2011 9:00 PM PT
From Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of taming deficits with the aim of stabilizing and ultimately reducing debt as a percentage of gross domestic product.
Our empirical research on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities supports the view that current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability, with many advanced economies already reaching or exceeding the important marker of 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, many prominent public intellectuals continue to argue that debt phobia is wildly overblown. Countries such as the U.S., Japan and the U.K. aren’t like Greece, nor does the market treat them as such.
Indeed, there is a growing perception that today’s low interest rates for the debt of advanced economies offer a compelling reason to begin another round of massive fiscal stimulus. If Asian nations are spinning off huge excess savings partly as a byproduct of measures that effectively force low- income savers to put their money in bank accounts with low government-imposed interest-rate ceilings -- why not take advantage of the cheap money?
Although we agree that governments must exercise caution in gradually reducing crisis-response spending, we think it would be folly to take comfort in today’s low borrowing costs, much less to interpret them as an “all clear” signal for a further explosion of debt.
Changing Interest Rates
Several studies of financial crises show that interest rates seldom indicate problems long in advance. In fact, we should probably be particularly concerned today because a growing share of advanced country debt is held by official creditors whose current willingness to forego short-term returns doesn’t guarantee there will be a captive audience for debt in perpetuity.
看起來小布希是好戰，敗家子！
From Jul 15, 2011 5:02 AM PT
Consumers are turning more pessimistic about their income prospects, an indication that household spending will grow at a slower pace compared with a year earlier.
The share of Americans foreseeing a drop in wages over the next six months topped the proportion projecting an increase by 2.6 percentage points in June, data from the Conference Board, a New York research group, showed. That is the lowest reading since October 2010, according to Lynn Franco, director of the group’s consumer research center.
Weak income expectations will continue to “hold back” consumer spending, she said in an interview this week. “Overall, we expect growth in real personal consumption to remain sluggish, averaging less than 2.5 percent in the second half of this year” on an annual basis, said Franco.
Spending adjusted for inflation, known as real spending, grew 2.7 percent by that measure on average from January through April, before cooling to 2.1 percent in the 12 months ended May, according to figures from the Commerce Department.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week highlighted concern over Americans’ attitudes toward income in his semi-annual testimony to Congress. “Households report that they have little confidence in the durability of the recovery and about their own income prospects,” Bernanke said.
==============================
By Jul 13, 2011 9:00 PM PT
From Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of taming deficits with the aim of stabilizing and ultimately reducing debt as a percentage of gross domestic product.
Our empirical research on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities supports the view that current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability, with many advanced economies already reaching or exceeding the important marker of 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, many prominent public intellectuals continue to argue that debt phobia is wildly overblown. Countries such as the U.S., Japan and the U.K. aren’t like Greece, nor does the market treat them as such.
Indeed, there is a growing perception that today’s low interest rates for the debt of advanced economies offer a compelling reason to begin another round of massive fiscal stimulus. If Asian nations are spinning off huge excess savings partly as a byproduct of measures that effectively force low- income savers to put their money in bank accounts with low government-imposed interest-rate ceilings -- why not take advantage of the cheap money?
Although we agree that governments must exercise caution in gradually reducing crisis-response spending, we think it would be folly to take comfort in today’s low borrowing costs, much less to interpret them as an “all clear” signal for a further explosion of debt.
Changing Interest Rates
Several studies of financial crises show that interest rates seldom indicate problems long in advance. In fact, we should probably be particularly concerned today because a growing share of advanced country debt is held by official creditors whose current willingness to forego short-term returns doesn’t guarantee there will be a captive audience for debt in perpetuity.
看起來小布希是好戰，敗家子！
 |
罪魁禍首是布希時代的減稅措施、伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭軍費支出，以及經濟衰退。
第一，布希減稅有重大負面效果。若所有減稅措施依原訂時程在2012年底失效，未來赤字約可減半。
第二，健全預算須健全經濟支撐；衰退重創稅收。政府須在景氣低迷時刺激需求並創造就業。
第三，光縮減開支無法填補預算缺口。一系列減稅措施使美國多年來寅吃卯糧，撙節開支已不足以彌補，加稅勢在必行。
第一，布希減稅有重大負面效果。若所有減稅措施依原訂時程在2012年底失效，未來赤字約可減半。
第二，健全預算須健全經濟支撐；衰退重創稅收。政府須在景氣低迷時刺激需求並創造就業。
第三，光縮減開支無法填補預算缺口。一系列減稅措施使美國多年來寅吃卯糧，撙節開支已不足以彌補，加稅勢在必行。
全站熱搜
留言列表
