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The Spanish government official GDP growth forecast for 2008 in April was 2.3%. This figure was successively revised down by the Spanish Ministry of Economy to 1.6. This figure looked better than those of most other developed countries. In reality, this rate effectively represented stagnant GDP per person due to Spain's high population growth, itself the result of a then continuing strong level of immigration. Currently most independent forecasters estimate that the rate was actually around 0.8% instead, far below the strong 3% plus GDP annual growth rates during the 1997-2007 decade.
The residential real estate bubble in Spain saw real estate prices rise 201% from 1985 to 2007.2004 estimations of demand: 300,000 for Spanish people, 100,000 for foreign investors, 100,000 for foreign people living in Spain and 300,000 for stock; in a country with 16.5 million families, 22-24 million houses and 3-4 million empty houses. From all the houses built over the 2001-2007 period, "no less than 20%" are vacant as of late 2008. Ten years ago, there were 3.1 million empty homes, 15% of those in the census. This time, the number will be, without a doubt, much higher. House ownership in Spain is above 80%. Banks offered 40-year and, more recently, 50-year mortgages.
Construction problems started as early as 2006, when developers informed buyers that builders wouldn't meet the initial deadline for completion, mostly because the construction boom had led to a shortage of labor and materials.During the final year of the building's construction, the global downturn began to hit Spain hard. Some of the buyers who had agreed to wait on the building decided to drop out. More than a third of the tower went unsold, the WSJ reports.
The National Statistics Institute has recently declared that Spain’s household savings rate increased by 24.7% of disposable income in the fourth quarter of last year, the biggest level after 2000. However, the consumer expenditure declined 0.40% in the same period of time, pushing savings up by 47.74 billion euros ($64.36 billion), and growth of 7.1%.
西班牙房地產的光景，曾是最繁榮的泡沫之一。受到該國史上最低利率的刺激，西班牙投資熱錢湧 進白色海岸 (Costa Blanca) 上的度假別墅、首都馬德里的高級公寓、以及全國各地的新成屋。這樣的狂熱讓西班牙房價在 2007 年達到高峰，但如今只剩下當年的 1/4，而且還看不到底部在哪裡。西班牙正遭逢三年來第二度的衰退，失業率逼近 25%，越來越多西班牙人繳不出房貸，這些人當年都是銀行爭先恐後要貸款給他們的對象。目前該國約有 190 萬棟房屋要出售，幾年內還會增加 390 萬棟。但西班牙每年的房屋需求量只有 17.5 萬棟，這樣的供需失衡將導致房價下跌 60%。
一個典型的西班牙人會有 80% 的資產和房地產有關，這種規模的房價下跌會造成毀滅性的後果，西班牙將面臨的是國家規模的巨大貧窮。西班牙的房產泡沫曾帶給該國全球最高的房屋自有率，當時每 10 個家庭就有超過 8 個擁有自己的房屋。
西 班牙房貸違約的曝險部位上升至 8760 億美元，西班牙的大型銀行遲早需要抒困，同時西班牙政府本身也因為主權債務和預算赤字問題而搖搖欲墜，恐怕也自身難保。兩年前，愛爾蘭銀行隨著該國房地產 市場崩潰，愛爾蘭政府向歐盟與 IMF 索求了 800 億歐元的金援。分析師估計要救西班牙則要 2000 億歐元，約 2640 億美元，這個數字逼近希臘援助金的 2 倍。西班牙央行報告，該國不良貸款已觸及 1994 年以來的新高，儘管政府估計只有 3% 的房貸會停繳，其他經濟學家則認為實際數字會高出許多。
房貸餘額劇烈緊縮
呆帳比率往上竄升因為房貸餘額減少
西班牙銀行把抵押品賣給投資機構，投資機構又把它們重新包裝成一捆「抵押貸款證券」 (Securitized Mortgage)，提供高收益率賣給保險公司和退休基金等機構投資人。但在作法上有個關鍵性的差異，美國會將次級貸款標示出來，即表示貸款者曾有不良信 用記錄，但西班牙則「一級」和「次級」不分。部分資產已過期 90 天以上的抵押貸款證券有些已上升到 14%，情形非常恐怖，每一季的數字都在惡化，表現最差的抵押貸款證券是由Bankia 銀行支持的，該銀行是西班牙最大的住房貸款提供者。
直到最近，銀行開始用原價買回表現最差的抵押貸款證券，用意是要保護海外投資人以避免它們撤資，維護銀行的投資地位。但隨著越來越多貸款違約，資本也越來越稀有且珍貴，一些銀行如今面臨折價買回抵押貸款證券的窘境，折扣約為 7-9 折。
IMF認為，就西班牙的情況而言，設法支撐銀行部門或經濟，可能比嚴格遵循預算目標更重要。西國政府已關閉或強制國內多數儲蓄銀行（cajas）合併，這類銀行擁有大量房貸業務。但銀行壞帳仍持續升高，目前已達1,850億美元。IMF指出，銀行自行吸收這些損失的能力有限，「更加依賴公共資金可能是必須的」。同時，應透過金融體系進一步的改革，優先處理不良資產。「西班牙的經濟要恢復成長，一定要落實金融改革與勞動市場鬆綁，這些改革至少要花五到十年才能看到成效。」
第二大銀行ＢＢＶＡ首席經濟學家卡多索（Minguel Cardoso）指出，「房市泡沫形成之際，政府稅收增加，建築業蓬勃，大家都享受增值好處。」西班牙房地產價格在二○○七年達到高峰，正是華爾街金融海嘯爆發前一年，當時經濟學家都沒有發現不對勁並提出警告嗎？卡多索指出，ＢＢＶＡ在例行報告中提醒投資人注意房市可能反轉，因為市場空屋已大幅增加。不過，「當時房地產一片榮景，你很難明確指出什麼是泡沫，因為大家都從房市中賺到錢。」卡多索指出，西班牙債務危機問題主要出在民間部門與地方政府，包括過度投資與過度舉債。在危機爆發之前，投資率高達ＧＤＰ的卅％，遠高於歐盟其他國家，且主要集中在不動產；其次是過度舉債，民間企業舉債達ＧＤＰ的八十％，其中大約有卅五％集中在不動產，這是很高的比率。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
The last resort of Spanish companies is Latin America [別小看西班牙艦隊！]
Not all Spanish companies will be equally affected by the domestic economy’s deepening recession, especially those that spent the 1990s expanding into Latin America.
Last year, Santander, BBVA and Telefonica – three of Spain’s four biggest companies by market capitalisation– made more money from their operations in the New World than they did at home. In coming years that trend will only increase. In 2012, over €5bn of Santander’s estimated €7bn of profits will come from Latin America, Credit Suisse estimates, with Brazil alone generating more profits than the bank’s operations in Europe and the UK combined. And by 2015, most of Spain’s 30 biggest companies expect to have more sales in Latin America than they do at home, according to a survey by the IE Business School in Madrid.The reason for Latin America’s growing importance to Spanish companies is clear – but also comes with a snag.
The main areas where most Spanish companies operate in Latin America are banking, telecommunications and energy, all of which are expected to see continued strong growth. In banking, Latin America remains under-penetrated: in Mexico, where BBVA is already the largest bank by deposits, less than a third of the adult population use banking services. In telecoms, expanded broadband, mobile voice and data services are only just beginning to be rolled out. As for energy, planned investment in Brazil’s deep sea reserves will top a couple of hundred of billions of dollars alone. Indeed, it could even force Spanish companies to liquidate their Latin American positions in order to compensate for losses at home.
The residential real estate bubble in Spain saw real estate prices rise 201% from 1985 to 2007.2004 estimations of demand: 300,000 for Spanish people, 100,000 for foreign investors, 100,000 for foreign people living in Spain and 300,000 for stock; in a country with 16.5 million families, 22-24 million houses and 3-4 million empty houses. From all the houses built over the 2001-2007 period, "no less than 20%" are vacant as of late 2008. Ten years ago, there were 3.1 million empty homes, 15% of those in the census. This time, the number will be, without a doubt, much higher. House ownership in Spain is above 80%. Banks offered 40-year and, more recently, 50-year mortgages.
Construction problems started as early as 2006, when developers informed buyers that builders wouldn't meet the initial deadline for completion, mostly because the construction boom had led to a shortage of labor and materials.During the final year of the building's construction, the global downturn began to hit Spain hard. Some of the buyers who had agreed to wait on the building decided to drop out. More than a third of the tower went unsold, the WSJ reports.
The National Statistics Institute has recently declared that Spain’s household savings rate increased by 24.7% of disposable income in the fourth quarter of last year, the biggest level after 2000. However, the consumer expenditure declined 0.40% in the same period of time, pushing savings up by 47.74 billion euros ($64.36 billion), and growth of 7.1%.
西班牙房地產的光景，曾是最繁榮的泡沫之一。受到該國史上最低利率的刺激，西班牙投資熱錢湧 進白色海岸 (Costa Blanca) 上的度假別墅、首都馬德里的高級公寓、以及全國各地的新成屋。這樣的狂熱讓西班牙房價在 2007 年達到高峰，但如今只剩下當年的 1/4，而且還看不到底部在哪裡。西班牙正遭逢三年來第二度的衰退，失業率逼近 25%，越來越多西班牙人繳不出房貸，這些人當年都是銀行爭先恐後要貸款給他們的對象。目前該國約有 190 萬棟房屋要出售，幾年內還會增加 390 萬棟。但西班牙每年的房屋需求量只有 17.5 萬棟，這樣的供需失衡將導致房價下跌 60%。
一個典型的西班牙人會有 80% 的資產和房地產有關，這種規模的房價下跌會造成毀滅性的後果，西班牙將面臨的是國家規模的巨大貧窮。西班牙的房產泡沫曾帶給該國全球最高的房屋自有率，當時每 10 個家庭就有超過 8 個擁有自己的房屋。
西 班牙房貸違約的曝險部位上升至 8760 億美元，西班牙的大型銀行遲早需要抒困，同時西班牙政府本身也因為主權債務和預算赤字問題而搖搖欲墜，恐怕也自身難保。兩年前，愛爾蘭銀行隨著該國房地產 市場崩潰，愛爾蘭政府向歐盟與 IMF 索求了 800 億歐元的金援。分析師估計要救西班牙則要 2000 億歐元，約 2640 億美元，這個數字逼近希臘援助金的 2 倍。西班牙央行報告，該國不良貸款已觸及 1994 年以來的新高，儘管政府估計只有 3% 的房貸會停繳，其他經濟學家則認為實際數字會高出許多。
房貸餘額劇烈緊縮
呆帳比率往上竄升因為房貸餘額減少
西班牙銀行把抵押品賣給投資機構，投資機構又把它們重新包裝成一捆「抵押貸款證券」 (Securitized Mortgage)，提供高收益率賣給保險公司和退休基金等機構投資人。但在作法上有個關鍵性的差異，美國會將次級貸款標示出來，即表示貸款者曾有不良信 用記錄，但西班牙則「一級」和「次級」不分。部分資產已過期 90 天以上的抵押貸款證券有些已上升到 14%，情形非常恐怖，每一季的數字都在惡化，表現最差的抵押貸款證券是由Bankia 銀行支持的，該銀行是西班牙最大的住房貸款提供者。
直到最近，銀行開始用原價買回表現最差的抵押貸款證券，用意是要保護海外投資人以避免它們撤資，維護銀行的投資地位。但隨著越來越多貸款違約，資本也越來越稀有且珍貴，一些銀行如今面臨折價買回抵押貸款證券的窘境，折扣約為 7-9 折。
IMF認為，就西班牙的情況而言，設法支撐銀行部門或經濟，可能比嚴格遵循預算目標更重要。西國政府已關閉或強制國內多數儲蓄銀行（cajas）合併，這類銀行擁有大量房貸業務。但銀行壞帳仍持續升高，目前已達1,850億美元。IMF指出，銀行自行吸收這些損失的能力有限，「更加依賴公共資金可能是必須的」。同時，應透過金融體系進一步的改革，優先處理不良資產。「西班牙的經濟要恢復成長，一定要落實金融改革與勞動市場鬆綁，這些改革至少要花五到十年才能看到成效。」
第二大銀行ＢＢＶＡ首席經濟學家卡多索（Minguel Cardoso）指出，「房市泡沫形成之際，政府稅收增加，建築業蓬勃，大家都享受增值好處。」西班牙房地產價格在二○○七年達到高峰，正是華爾街金融海嘯爆發前一年，當時經濟學家都沒有發現不對勁並提出警告嗎？卡多索指出，ＢＢＶＡ在例行報告中提醒投資人注意房市可能反轉，因為市場空屋已大幅增加。不過，「當時房地產一片榮景，你很難明確指出什麼是泡沫，因為大家都從房市中賺到錢。」卡多索指出，西班牙債務危機問題主要出在民間部門與地方政府，包括過度投資與過度舉債。在危機爆發之前，投資率高達ＧＤＰ的卅％，遠高於歐盟其他國家，且主要集中在不動產；其次是過度舉債，民間企業舉債達ＧＤＰ的八十％，其中大約有卅五％集中在不動產，這是很高的比率。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
The last resort of Spanish companies is Latin America [別小看西班牙艦隊！]
Not all Spanish companies will be equally affected by the domestic economy’s deepening recession, especially those that spent the 1990s expanding into Latin America.
Last year, Santander, BBVA and Telefonica – three of Spain’s four biggest companies by market capitalisation– made more money from their operations in the New World than they did at home. In coming years that trend will only increase. In 2012, over €5bn of Santander’s estimated €7bn of profits will come from Latin America, Credit Suisse estimates, with Brazil alone generating more profits than the bank’s operations in Europe and the UK combined. And by 2015, most of Spain’s 30 biggest companies expect to have more sales in Latin America than they do at home, according to a survey by the IE Business School in Madrid.The reason for Latin America’s growing importance to Spanish companies is clear – but also comes with a snag.
The main areas where most Spanish companies operate in Latin America are banking, telecommunications and energy, all of which are expected to see continued strong growth. In banking, Latin America remains under-penetrated: in Mexico, where BBVA is already the largest bank by deposits, less than a third of the adult population use banking services. In telecoms, expanded broadband, mobile voice and data services are only just beginning to be rolled out. As for energy, planned investment in Brazil’s deep sea reserves will top a couple of hundred of billions of dollars alone. Indeed, it could even force Spanish companies to liquidate their Latin American positions in order to compensate for losses at home.
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