歐巴馬就人民幣對中國施壓，中國同時間正召開政協、人大兩會，逼得溫家寶在人大會閉幕記者會上，高分貝對外宣示人民幣沒有低估，將維持人民幣基本穩定。中國國家主席胡錦濤將於4月訪美，這時姿態拉得很高，一旦訪美就人民幣升值議題討論，可能真的升值個2%。
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China called on US multinationals on Tuesday to lobby the Obama administration against taking protectionist measures over the Chinese currency, just as attitudes towards China appear to be hardening in the US Congress.
“China’s currency manipulation would be unacceptable even in good economic times. At a time of 10 per cent unemployment, we will simply not stand for it,” Mr Schumer said.
China’s
pledge last week to “further push ahead with reform of the renminbi
exchange rate formation” was its strongest commitment to flexibility
since the new dollar peg was put in place in July 2008. It may imply,
notes Citic Securities, a desire to adopt a “basket, band and crawl”
policy, similar to Singapore’s,
where the currency is managed against an undisclosed group of
currencies, floating within a set band, to achieve a targeted
appreciation or depreciation within a specified timeframe. If so,
great.
Meantime, the Obama administration should leave it to Brazil, Russia and other emerging nations – where China’s shipments should overtake those to the three big developed markets this year, on CICC estimates – to make the argument for revaluation in public.
If the US really wants a stronger renminbi, the best advice is to shut up, and let it happen.
Those countries would have nearly a year to adjust the value of their currency before the US administration was required to bring a case against them at the World Trade Organisation, according to the proposal. The Treasury would also have to “consult” the Federal Reserve and other central banks about “remedial intervention in currency markets”.
Some measures could be taken earlier, including forbidding Chinese companies from participating in US government contracts, requesting an International Monetary Fund consultation with China, and including currency undervaluation as part of dumping calculations. Mr Schumer and Mr Graham have been leading the charge in Congress against China’s currency policy for several years, and have periodically presented similar proposals.
But their efforts may have gained fresh impetus on the back of a recent flare-up in tensions between Beijing and Washington on issues including currency.
2010-03-19清華大學中美關係研究中心高級研究員周世儉估計，單在紡織服裝業中，至少有超過2500萬的就業危機，這還不包括其他規模以下企業，以及紡織服裝行業以外企業。「就業問題直接關係到社會穩定，這是人民幣升值帶來的最大威脅。」，周世儉說。
除了就業問題以外，出口行業利潤是人民幣匯率問題的另一個重要影響點。整體而言，人民幣升值將對3類企業產生較大影響：大型成套設備企業；家電、電工、一般機械等優勢產業；造船、汽車、鋼鐵、手機等弱勢產業。
2010-03-17 By The Economist print edition
美國推動其出口的決心益堅，對待中國的態度也轉為強硬。歐巴馬已訂下在五年內出口增加一倍的目標。隨著美國期中選舉的逼近，國會打擊中國的氣氛也隨之上升。而 在中國方面，即使近期出口強勁成長，通膨也高於預期，北京政府仍然沒有顯現太多讓步的跡象。人民幣儘快停止緊盯美元，對中國與全世界都有益。有了 更強勢、更具彈性的人民幣，控制通膨和資產泡沫會變得更容易。人民幣升值會使民眾的購買力增加，並減少製造業過度投資，也有助中國經濟轉向國內消費。此 外，全球復甦會更為穩定，特別是亞洲新興經濟體的貨幣也有可能伴隨人民幣升值。
不過，中國經濟新平衡需要結構性的大改革，從稅制到公司監督、貨幣走強都包含在內。人民幣走強也不會提供美國數以百萬計的就業機會。由於美國不再生產的產品大部分都是來自中國的進口，因此人民幣升值初期更像是對消費者的徵稅。
2010-06-19
在20國高峰會 (G20)舉行前夕，中國人行昨晚宣布「重啟匯改機制」，美國財長蓋特納立即發表「歡迎」聲明，讓人以為人民幣似乎就此即將升值。不過，觀察人行動作和文 句，「天底下沒有一個央行會笨到主動向外界說明貨幣要升值」，人行的宣示，只是提前釋放國際間排山倒海而來的壓力、滿足美國年底選前的選情壓力，進而舒緩 大陸日益創高的通膨隱憂。
就中國現今立場，人民幣到底會不會升、 能升多少? 可能只能「聽其言、觀其行」，由實際數字來看，才能了解中國人行的真正用意了。
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